tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post4726084349630959046..comments2024-03-15T15:56:38.460+01:00Comments on Eivind Berge's Blog: Why deflation is the endgame, conceptually explainedEivind Bergehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-6646197839750092782017-01-20T19:24:22.799+01:002017-01-20T19:24:22.799+01:00Gail Tverberg responderte til denne diskusjonen he...Gail Tverberg responderte til denne diskusjonen her:<br /><br />http://permaliv.blogspot.no/2015/01/gail-tverberg-vs-john-michael-greer.html?showComment=1484794623680<br /><br />Gail the ActuaryJanuary 19, 2017 at 3:57 AM<br /><br />"John Michael Greer looks at the situation where there are a very small number of occupations, and most of the workers are farmers. If there is a significant die-off in population, the remainder can continue to do their jobs. If the government has problems, a farmer can, in theory, move to nearby area, and continue to farm. Implements are simple. There is no dependence on oil or electricity. In such a situation, even if there is a partial collapse, the remainder can continue. It is much less likely this will be the case, where we have a economies dependent on international trade, a debt-based financial system, just-in-time delivery, electricity, and oil."Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-31502581632052352342015-05-24T21:58:16.069+02:002015-05-24T21:58:16.069+02:00Et samfunn som til og med setter politiet på horek...Et samfunn som til og med setter politiet på horekunder mens horer er uskyldige, fortjener så visst ikke snille menn. Hvorfor skal vi gidde å oppføre oss pent når mannlig seksualitet er så til de grader kriminalisert?"-har det noen gang falt deg inn at disse horene er ofre ? At egentlig det siste de vil i livet er ha sex med en ekkel fyr som MÅ betale for det. OG hvorfor skal ikke du oppføre deg pent overfor mennesker uavhengig av om du er enig i et lands lovgiving eller ikke ? Hvorfor gir det deg e rett til å utøve vold mot andre ? Det er mye jeg ikke er enige i Norge, men det gir meg ikke rett til å oppføre meg dårlig mot andre, to feil blir ikke en riktig. hallo, jeg er i mot perkeringsreglene i Bergen så d gir meg rett til å drepe E. Berge for han protesterer ikke mot parkeringsregler slik jeg gjør....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-17938013545802640542015-03-31T14:33:09.234+02:002015-03-31T14:33:09.234+02:00Re: I have to credit Gail Tverberg with explaining...Re: <i>I have to credit Gail Tverberg with explaining how increased depletion leads to falling oil prices, or else I would be just as clueless as most people. .. She thinks we have at most two years of business as usual left, and then collapse will occur by the end of 2016. And the only remedy she can come up with is to pray for divine intervention</i>.<br /><br />*~~~~~* *~~~~~* *~~~~~* *~~~~~* <br />Except of Invitation which was sent to Ms. Gail Tverberg to support the implementation of an Ecology of Peace international law social contract for orderly and humane deindustrialization and depopulation. No response received. Full text of invitation available at <a href="http://tygae.weebly.com/eop-pow-geneva-convention-amendments.html" rel="nofollow">EoP PoW Geneva Convention Amendments</a>: Submission Documentation: Legal Supporters & Correspondence: Supporters - Read Receipts (<a href="http://tygae.weebly.com/uploads/1/3/8/7/13878165/13-12-14_gmc4643-13_ch-fc_e-a_rrsupp.pdf" rel="nofollow">PDF</a>).<br />*~~~~~* *~~~~~* *~~~~~* *~~~~~* <br /><br />Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2014 2:32 AM<br />To: 'Oil Drum Editors'; 'Nate Hagens'; 'Brian Maschhoff'; 'Rune Likvern'; 'Gail Tverberg'; 'Chris Vernon'; 'Robert Rapier'; 'Samuel Avro'; 'Juan Aguilar'; 'Allison Braxton'; 'Jeff Vail'; 'Luis de Sousa'<br />Cc: 'Timothy Truthseeker'<br />Subject: Legal Invitation: MILINT Earth Day submission to Swiss Federal Council<br /><br />TO: Oil Drum Editors; Nate Hagens; Brian Maschhoff; Rune Likvern; Gail Tverberg; Chris Vernon; Robert Rapier; Samuel Avro; Juan Aguilar; Allison Braxton; Jeff Vail; Luis de Sousa<br />CC: Timothy McVeigh<br /><br />Legal Invitation to support GMC 4643-13 MILINT Earth Day Applicants SUBMISSION TO SWISS FEDERAL COUNCIL RE: GENEVA CONVENTION RELATIVE TO THE TREATMENT OF PRISONERS OF WAR, ITO ARTICLES 142 & 143 (PDF).<br /><br />If you seriously and honourably support the submission to the Swiss Federal Council -- to implement MILINT Earth Day due process solutions to honourably de-industrialize and humanely reduce planetary population and consumption to ecological carrying capacity limits including the adoption of an international law social contract requiring all the worlds religious, racial and cultural tribes to restrict their members consumption and procreation to ecological carrying capacity limits -- please respond with a ‘Read Receipt’. <br /><br />Your ‘read receipt’ support shall then be included as attached ‘supporters’ for the submission to the Swiss Federal Council; once Presidents Obama and Putin, the Pentagon, CIA, FSB, NATO et al officials; have concluded there is sufficient support for the submission not to be emasculated, of its fundamental MILINT Earth Day principles. <br /><br />‘Not Read’ responses shall be interpreted as follows:<br /><br />You did not read the invitation; or Notice of Legal Argument objection. <br /><br />Terms of Service: Re: ‘Not Read’ = Notice of Legal Argument Objection: <br /><br />If your ‘not read’ response is a result of your objection to the Military Necessity CommonSism arguments to implement international legislation to limit the ‘right to breed’ and ‘right to consume’ to carrying capacity limits; to orderly address ecological overshoot and climate collapse; to be submitted to the Swiss Federal Council.<br /><br />You are invited to submit a brief with your legal argument, and evidence for your legal argument; within two weeks of your ‘not read’ response ‘notice to object’. .......... [ continued ] <br /><br />-- end excerpt --<br /><br />FTR: A copy of this comment is posted to Transcript of Comments Correspondence [<a href="http://tiny.cc/q5cjvx" rel="nofollow">PDF</a>]: RE: Former MILED Clerk Ecology of Peace v War is Peace culture NWO Negotiations [<a href="http://tiny.cc/16cjvx" rel="nofollow">PDF</a>].Andrea Muhrrteynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13455575591213217060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-80970362293387781382015-03-07T07:58:04.211+01:002015-03-07T07:58:04.211+01:00Once you realize that the driver of falling commod...Once you realize that the driver of falling commodity prices is depletion, it changes your whole outlook. It means there can be no fix for this situation, because depletion can't be reversed. If you don't believe that the low oil price is caused by depletion, take a look at this site:<br /><br />http://www.thehillsgroup.org/<br /><br />I know it is a bit counterintuitive that depletion should lead to lower prices, but that's the way it is, and it is actually easy to understand if you think about it.<br /><br />Misandry is about to be a moot point as well after the government has collapsed. Enjoy your cheap gas while you can, because it heralds the end of oil production and the end of industrial civilization. Oil is getting cheaper because it is delivering less and less net energy to the economy. The problem is we won't get any more oil when the economy is unable to support the cost of extraction. There is no possible substitute for the energy delivered by fossil fuels, so we are out of luck.<br /><br />Nah, I am not much into heavy metal. I prefer country music.Eivind Bergehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-38558998335519338622015-03-07T07:15:32.086+01:002015-03-07T07:15:32.086+01:00Ola Evil Eivind Brevik, er Berge!
So, wait, what,...Ola Evil Eivind Brevik, er Berge!<br /><br />So, wait, what, you M(h)RA's confound me with your logic...<br /><br />The biggest problem is now not feminism but falling gas prices...<br /><br />So if I enjoy falling gas prices, does that not make me guilty of misandry???<br /><br />BTW-I saw a nice heavey metal band from your homeland called Enslaved.<br /><br />Do you like heavy metal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-60247067727483987112015-02-26T22:33:18.935+01:002015-02-26T22:33:18.935+01:00Mulla Krekar arrestert igjen allerede? Wow, det gi...Mulla Krekar arrestert igjen allerede? Wow, det gikk raskt. Men jeg må si han gikk temmelig langt denne gangen i å si ting som rimeligvis kan rammes av § 140. Å utlove dusør for drap på en bestemt person er ganske grovt, og langt verre enn noe jeg noengang har sagt. Jeg ville aldri funnet på å uttale meg slik, for det er jo å be om å bli arrestert. Nærmest et skoleeksempel på hva oppvigling er, så hvis han blir dømt for dette, så er det egentlig ikke overraskende og kan ikke sammenlignes den type retorikk som jeg står for.Eivind Bergehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-40652541209097390172015-02-26T21:56:46.273+01:002015-02-26T21:56:46.273+01:00Nok en gang pågripelse etter § 140. Skal bli inter...Nok en gang pågripelse etter § 140. Skal bli interessant å følge med i fortsettelsen.<br /><br />http://www.nrk.no/norge/mulla-krekar-er-pagrepet-1.12232017Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-61081140186418178582015-02-04T22:29:27.569+01:002015-02-04T22:29:27.569+01:00Here is another peak oil aware blogger who has som...Here is another peak oil aware blogger who has some interesting views. He doesnt seem to have written on the subject recently but he explains why we should be at least be thankful that Communism dominated much of the world for most of the 20th C.<br /><br />: "By repressing the economic potential of eastern Europe and China throughout much of the 20th century, one of Marxism-Leninism’s greatest legacies is to have indirectlypostponed humanity’s reckoning with the Earth’s limits to industrial growth in the form of resource depletion and AGW. Had Eastern Europe and Russia become industrialized, consumer nations by the 1950’s-1960’s instead of the 2010’s-2020’s; had China followed the development trajectory of Taiwan; had nations from India to Brazil not excessively indulged in growth-retarding import substitution, it is very likely that today we would already be well on the downward slope of Hubbert’s curve of oil depletion, and burning coal to compensate – in turn reinforcing an already runaway global warming process." <br /><br />http://akarlin.com/2010/01/green-communism/Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-42787007722645278702015-02-04T19:07:43.120+01:002015-02-04T19:07:43.120+01:00Had the Axis powers won WWII most of the world wou...Had the Axis powers won WWII most of the world would most likely have adopted this radically different financial system. There would be no booms and busts. No such thing as Goldman Sachs, or the Federal Reserve. There would be no globalisation, instead there would be independent national economies. Debt of course would still exist but banks would only have the power to lend out money that already existed. Our economies would not be driven by the need for frenzied growth to service old debt. Our stores would not be filled with cheap plastic goods from China since the Chinese economy would not depend on exports. Countries would generate capital internally instead of depending on foreign investment. International trade would be a fraction of what it is now. <br /><br />Had this system triumphed it is unlikely we would be staring at total global collapse now. We would probably be better off in other ways as well. With the Nazi emphasis on eugenics it is likely that genetic engineering and transhumanist projects would have begun in earnest decades ago. With Parliamentary democracy having been consigned to the dustbin, national leaders would be focused on the long term interest of the country instead of the next election. It would have been inconceivable that nuclear power would have been neglected in the way that it has. German Nazi scientists were already years ahead of their time and had so many of them not been executed or dispersed across the world after the war we would probably be a far more technologically advanced civilisation today. At some point we get into pure speculation but we might have already developed fusion power or some other silver bullet. <br /><br />Eventually we might probably have run into limits to growth but we would be in a far better position to deal with it than we are today. Even if one believes the nonsensical fraud that is the official Holocaust narrative the world as a whole would be incomparably better off than it is today. It goes without saying we would have been spared the menace of feminism as well. It fills me with pain and sadness to think what might have been. At the same time the knowledge that the corrupt liberal globalist system enthroned in 1945 is now finally ending will help me to die in peace.Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-55713223830432301922015-02-04T18:54:19.037+01:002015-02-04T18:54:19.037+01:00quote taken from the blog "The Irish Savant&q...quote taken from the blog "The Irish Savant"<br /><br /><i> “In January 1938, the Soviet diplomat Kristyan Rakovsky commented on the German money system. Rakovsky had held posts in London and in Paris and was acquainted with Wall Street financiers. He explained, “Hitler, this uneducated ordinary man, has out of natural intuition and even despite the opposition of the technician Schacht, created an especially dangerous economic system. An illiterate in every theory of economics driven only by necessity, he has cut out international as well as private high finance. Hitler possesses almost no gold, and so he can’t endeavor to make it a basis for currency. Since the only available collateral for his money is the technical aptitude and great industriousness of the German people, technology and labor became his ‘gold’…. As you know, like magic it’s eliminated all the unemployment for more than six million skilled employees and laborers. “Germany’s withdrawal from the gold-based, internationally linked monetary system in favor of a medium of exchange founded on domestic productivity corresponded to Hitler’s belief in maintaining the sovereignty of nations. This was an unwelcome development in London, Paris and New York, where cosmopolitan investment and banking institutions profited from loaning money to foreign countries. Germany no longer had to borrow in order to trade on the world market. Foreign demand for German goods correspondingly created more jobs within the Reich”</i>Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-6689634609855870942015-02-04T18:50:42.913+01:002015-02-04T18:50:42.913+01:00Negentropic,
Funny that you should quote the fas...Negentropic, <br /><br />Funny that you should quote the fascist money reformer Ezra Pound as I have been thinking recently about this very question. How would things have been different/better if we didn't have a debt based currency?<br /><br />I'm not sure if Gail or Greer have seriously considered the arguments of monetary reformers like Bill Still or Ellen Brown. Their argument is basically this: that at least since the founding of the Bank of England the world has been progressively enslaved by an insane financial system whereby private banks have the power to lend money into existence out of nothing as interest-bearing debt for their own profit. The alternative is a more intuitively sensible and rational system where money is issued by the state (with obvious checks) debt free and spent into circulation for the benefit of the people.<br /> <br />Humanity has at various periods managed to escape this system (The island of Guernsey as far as I know is the last remaining place in the world where the state issues its own debt free currency) <br /><br />What modern monetary reformers often neglect to mention is that Nazi Germany was the last major nation to have done this before it was destroyed by war: <br /> <br /><i>"Under the National Socialists, Germany’s money wasn’t backed by gold (which was owned by the international bankers). It was essentially a receipt for labor and materials delivered to the government.<br />Hitler said, “For every mark issued, we required the equivalent of a mark’s worth of work done, or goods produced.” The government paid workers in Certificates. Workers spent those Certificates on other goods and services, thus creating more jobs for more people. In this way the German people climbed out of the crushing debt imposed on them by the international bankers.<br />Within two years, the unemployment problem had been solved, and Germany was back on its feet. It had a solid, stable currency, with no debt, and no inflation, at a time when millions of people in the United States and other Western countries (controlled by international bankers) were still out of work. Within five years, Germany went from the poorest nation in Europe to the richest.<br />Germany even managed to restore foreign trade, despite the international bankers’ denial of foreign credit to Germany, and despite the global boycott by Jewish-owned industries. Germany succeeded in this by exchanging equipment and commodities directly with other countries, using a barter system that cut the bankers out of the picture. Germany flourished, since barter eliminates national debt and trade deficits."</i><br /><br />http://justice4germans.com/2013/09/25/debunking-anthony-migchels-concerning-nsdap-monetary-policy-and-usury/Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-51171329317472382672015-02-04T10:43:19.542+01:002015-02-04T10:43:19.542+01:00Yes Dan, I really think Cuba is one of the best pl...Yes Dan, I really think Cuba is one of the best places to stay when a collapse occures!<br /><br />And yes, I think the forests are much safer than i thought. Both because the facts you mention, but also because of the poor standard af handsaw equipment these days. The step from an ax to a hand saw can be compared with the step from a hand saw to a motor chain saw. Most handsaws today are not very adequate for logging and cutting woods. Also most axes are too small to be effecient, older axes were much bigger. Most axes and saws today are for hobby use and will wear out soon.Øyvind Holmstadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-15222063574429612602015-02-04T09:48:11.479+01:002015-02-04T09:48:11.479+01:00“Lest you forget the nature of money/i.e., that it...“Lest you forget the nature of money/i.e., that it is a ticket. For the govt. to issue it against any particular merchandise or metal, is merely to favour the owners of that metal and by just that much to betray the rest of the public. You can see that the bill here photod. has SERVED (I mean by the worn state of the note). Certificates of work done. That is what these notes were in fact / before the bank swine got the monopoly. Thus was the wilderness conquered for the sake of pork-barrelers who followed.” — Ezra Pound – postcard to Franklin D. Roosevelt<br /> <br />“And so that you don’t continually misunderstand–usury and interest are not the same thing. Usury is a charge made for the use of money regardless of production and often regardless of even the possibilities of production” —<br />Ezra Pound Reading, vol. 2, Caedmon Records 1962 <br /><br />“The trick is simple. Whenever the Rothschild and other gents in the gold business have gold to sell, they raise the price. The public is fooled by propagandizing the devaluation of the dollar, or other monetary unit according to the country chosen to be victimized. The argument is that the high price of the monetary unit is injurious to the nation’s commerce.<br /><br />But when the nation, that is, the people of that nation own the gold and the financiers own the dollars or other monetary units, the gold standard is restored. This raises the value of the dollar and the citizens of ‘rich’ nations, as well as citizens of other nations, are diddled.”~ Ezra Pound<br /><br /><br />~ NegentropicAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-60466618219234264142015-02-04T09:32:23.917+01:002015-02-04T09:32:23.917+01:00Again, trying to be optimistic but would rapid def...Again, trying to be optimistic but would rapid deforestation necessarily ensue? Im guessing in a collapse situation a lot of people, elderly, infirm or those who rely on medication would die which sucks for them but it would ease the fuel shortagr. Following WWI millions died from an epidemic caused in part by low immunity due to wartime malnutrition. Wouldnt something like this be more likely than 7bn people stripping the last remaining forests? Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-92187431974602782132015-02-04T09:19:18.362+01:002015-02-04T09:19:18.362+01:00Im trying to look at things optimistically here bu...Im trying to look at things optimistically here but Im wondering about the example of Cuba and how it seemed to adapt quite quickly to the collapse that occured when their Soviet lifeline was cut. A similar thing happened during WWII when parks and golf courses were used for growing food. Doesnt this indicate that rapid dieoff isnt inevitable. http://www.bullfrogfilms.com/catalog/cuba1.htmlDannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-82014726528969126002015-02-04T07:51:58.886+01:002015-02-04T07:51:58.886+01:00"However, before chainsaws and other modern t..."However, before chainsaws and other modern technology, there existed a whole range of the right tools for harvesting firewood.<br /><br />Two-person crosscut saws, axes, an array of smaller saws, and saw sharpening kits are still available today. These high-quality tools will last a lifetime. With some practice, you and a partner can become proficient in producing enough firewood for barter."<br /><br />By the way, is there anyone who knows where to buy a really sturdy "two-person crosscut saw"?<br /><br />It came to my mind that the saws you can buy in ordinary hardware stores are not at all sturdy enough, and generally not useful for two persons. <br /><br />I think good wood cutting saws will be a critical issue for survival here, as most hand saws made today are just junk. Cutting firewood with axes is too much work.<br /><br />So please inform me where to buy sturdy wood cutting saws and other items that can last for generations in a post-industrial society!Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-19732472224754463302015-02-04T07:40:48.903+01:002015-02-04T07:40:48.903+01:00Here's an article (although a little naive) I ...Here's an article (although a little naive) I found on the top of my favourites bar this morning.<br /><br />- Survival Skills You’ll Need If Society Collapses:<br /><br />http://www.offthegridnews.com/2015/02/03/survival-skills-youll-need-if-society-collapses/<br /><br />Teaching such skills should have been done on a massive scale. If Gail is right, or even it's only a 50% chance she's right, we should have dropped all other education and focused on such skills only.<br /><br />Ranging from kindergartens to universities to adult education.Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-25051804412322968032015-02-04T07:01:30.998+01:002015-02-04T07:01:30.998+01:00Nonchalant is the word!
Degrowth is growing in po...Nonchalant is the word!<br /><br />Degrowth is growing in popularity: <br /><br />http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/book-of-the-day-degrowth-the-book/2015/02/01<br /><br />But if Gail is right, there will become too much of it.<br /><br />Is there a way for degrowth where we can live in balance with ecosystem services, without collapsing the whole economy?<br /><br />Another problem is that centralized governments surely don't appreciate permaculture, because permaculture is strictly decentralized. This way they will lose control. An important reason why governments won't support degrowth.<br /><br />Anyway, Tverberg thinks living on less is just an utopian dream, because the way our networked economy works. In her view, we have painted ourselves into a corner, with no escape.<br /><br />Still, if this is correct, we should do everything in our power to make as many of us as possible survive a rapid collapse.<br /><br />Like arranging courses in permaculture design. Teaching people survival technology, like making bows and arrows, making a fire without matches, etc. Planting oak forests. Storing huge amounts of metal tools in caves in the mountains. Storing shoes, as Tverberg points out this is a critical issue in cold climate.<br /><br />Instead, people remain completely nonchalant. Like in the times of Noah. Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-73524468934467779462015-02-03T21:15:08.575+01:002015-02-03T21:15:08.575+01:00And thanks for posting those illustrations. At lea...And thanks for posting those illustrations. At least some of us are raising awareness. I personally can't understand why so many people remain nonchalant about these crucial issues.Eivind Bergehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-55366621326657684322015-02-03T20:37:24.370+01:002015-02-03T20:37:24.370+01:00I agree that 2% (or 5%?) may well survive after a ...I agree that 2% (or 5%?) may well survive after a rapid dieoff, and they might even live fairly well initially using the stuff left behind. But they would have absolutely no hope of preserving industrial civilization. There would be no more computers made, the electric grid would be down, and fossil fuels would be almost completely inaccessible, at least for a very, very long time.<br /><br />That's easy enough to understand. But why do we need to jump directly to that level as soon as we can't add more debt and keep growing the economy? Because that's what Gail argues, and she does so quite convincingly too. Given what is at stake, it is completely crazy that not more people are engaging these issues!Eivind Bergehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-76484342480605615282015-02-03T20:12:08.463+01:002015-02-03T20:12:08.463+01:00Thanks!
I wish there could have been arranged a s...Thanks!<br /><br />I wish there could have been arranged a serious meeting between Tverberg and Greer, so that they together could have gone more in depth with these utterly important issues.<br /><br />It seems like Tverberg's best hope for humanity is an intervention by a higher power. While Greer hopes for an eco-technic civilization on 1820-levels.<br /><br />But if 98% die of rapidly, there should be plenty of tools, clothes and land for the remaining to survive. Further, these 2% will be the strongest ones. Why shouldn't they survive?<br /><br />By the way, I put up a part of our conversation including the illustrations: <br /><br />http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/gail-tverberg-vs-john-michael-greer/2015/02/03<br /><br />Hope more people will engage in these issues?<br />Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-36556094838695664982015-02-03T19:04:05.232+01:002015-02-03T19:04:05.232+01:00If 95% of the population died off, then obviously ...If 95% of the population died off, then obviously the remaining 5% could not simply go on as before. All the mining operations, supply lines and factories would stop working long before that many people died. There would be no way to keep industrial civilization running after a sudden big dieoff, and this really is different than before.<br /><br />The big question, as I see it, is how low can we go before the whole system breaks? And how quickly will it break? Will our entire civilization collapse as soon as economic growth is no longer possible, like Gail claims? This is not exactly obvious and completely mind-blowing if true. But she is making a good case for it.Eivind Bergehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04899250633318059069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-44020537069420350772015-02-03T18:38:04.654+01:002015-02-03T18:38:04.654+01:00I view the 500 year gap between civilizations as i...I view the 500 year gap between civilizations as including what I show as the “inter cycle” period between civilizations in Figure 6, above. This is the gap that took place before new growth could occur.<br /><br />The big problem in the past with civilizations that collapsed was that humans were using renewable resources faster than they could renew. Population continued to expand as well. The combination of rising population and depleting soil and forest resources led to diminishing returns, lower wages for many workers, and difficulty funding governments. A 500 year gap between civilizations took the population pressure off an area. Forests were able to regrow, and soil was able to renew (at least partly through regeneration of soil by erosion of base rock).<br /><br />Today, we still have the problems we had in the past, but we have some new ones as well:<br /><br />We are depleting aquifers much more rapidly than they regenerate. In many cases, the water table is far below what can be reached with simple tools. It will take thousands of years for these aquifers to regenerate.<br /><br />We are depleting minerals of all kinds, so that we now need “high tech” methods to extract the low ore concentrations. These minerals will be out of reach, without the use of electricity and fossil fuels. In fact, the vast majority of fossil fuel energy supplies will also be out of reach, without today’s high tech methods. <br /><br />Eventually this may change, with new fossil fuel formation and with earthquakes, but the timeframe is likely to be millions of years.<br />Most people today do not know how to live without fossil fuels and electricity. If fossil fusel and electricity disappeared, most of us would not know how to produce our own food, water, and other basic necessities.<br /><br />Most of us could not just “pick up and do as we did before,” with respect to our current jobs, if the government and 95% of the population disappeared. Our jobs are often supported by global supply chains that would disappear, as well as direct use of fossil fuels and electricity.<br /><br />The world is sufficiently networked that most of it is likely to be drawn into a world-wide collapse. <br /><br />In the past, areas that did not collapse continued to function. These areas could act as a back-up, if functions were lost.<br /><br />In the past, the 500 year gap was enough to allow regeneration of forests and soil, once population pressures were reduced. If that were our only problem now, we could expect the same pattern again. Such a regeneration would allow a reasonably large group of people (say 500 million people) to get back to a non-fossil fuel based civilization in 500 years, with new governments, roads and other services.<br /><br />In such a new civilization, we would likely have difficulty using much metals, because ores are now quite depleted. Even reprocessing of existing metals is likely to require more heat energy than is easily available from renewables sources.<br /><br />We are now so dependent on fossil fuels and electricity that any collapse that does take place seems likely to be faster than prior collapses. If the electric grid goes down in an area, and cannot be repaired, most business functions will be lost–practically immediately. If oil supply is interrupted, it also will bring a halt to most business in an area, because workers can’t get to work and raw materials cannot be transported.<br /><br />We are bing told, “Renewables will save us,” but this is basically a lie. Wind and solar PV are just as much a part of our current fossil fuel system as any other source of electricity. They will only last as long as the weakest link–inverters that need replacing, batteries that need replacing, or the electric grid that needs fixing. We are being told that these are our salvation, because politicians need to have something to point to as a solution–not because they really will work."Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-12987927928009826742015-02-03T18:37:56.908+01:002015-02-03T18:37:56.908+01:00Here is an interesting extract from Tverberg:
htt...Here is an interesting extract from Tverberg:<br /><br />http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/05/29/converging-energy-crises-and-how-our-current-situation-differs-from-the-past/<br /><br />"How This Time is Different<br /><br />Greer, in his talk, mentioned several points about prior collapses:<br /><br />Typically 95% of the population died off.<br /><br />The time between civilizations tended to be about 500 years.<br /><br />The 5% who survived were able to go about doing things, pretty much as had been done in the past.<br /><br />The downslopes often had jogs and bumps in them, and could be slow.<br />The question arises as to how helpful this information is with respect to what is ahead. As I see the situation, civilizations that failed in the past were not fossil fuel dependent or electricity dependent. While there was specialization of labor, there was much less specialization than there is today. While there was some trade, the majority of food and clothing was locally produced. The biggest problems were<br /><br />Growing population<br /><br />Arable farmland that did not expand to meet growing population<br /><br />Soil problems (loss of fertility, erosion, salinity)<br /><br />Deforestation<br /><br />Competition from neighboring civilizations<br /><br />Government collapse<br /><br />Debt problems<br /><br />Øyvind Holmstadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04750850581311963220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26678806.post-82105394913747410522015-02-01T09:14:35.740+01:002015-02-01T09:14:35.740+01:00Thanks for your advice. I appreciate it. I will ha...Thanks for your advice. I appreciate it. I will have a look at that link. Dannoreply@blogger.com