Sunday, July 16, 2017

The state of Bitcoin, summer 2017

After years of acrimonious blocksize debate, we are finally forking to bigger blocks on August 1st. Run Bitcoin ABC, which is a user activated hard fork (UAHF) to basically get what was promised by Bitcoin Unlimited, paving the way for up to 32-megabyte blocks (without segwit). However, the situation is a bigger mess than a split into two chains, with at least two other competing forks. There is Segwit2x, which will implement segwit as a soft fork on August 1st and then about three months later hardfork to a two-megabyte base blocksize, but then there is also a user activated soft fork (UASF, aka BIP148) which will only implement segwit. The UASF, being a soft fork of Core, can any time later wipe out the Core chain without segwit if it gets enough hash power, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get some kind of hard fork to preserve both of these as well, perhaps with a proof-of-work change (wouldn't it be lovely to be able to mine Bitcoin on CPUs and GPUs again? I doubt this chain will win over the economic majority though).

No wonder Bitcoin is going down. On the plus side, you will have coins on all forks if you already hodl bitcoin or buy now (before August 1st), except that is not so straightforward either due to the risk of replay attacks.

The Bitcoin community could absolutely not agree on a clean scaling solution, or even the need to scale at all, so instead it is tearing itself apart and splitting along fanatical ideological lines (with some corporate interests thrown in, which are also rather complicated, and it is not at all clear which side is best for decentralization and censorship-resistance though they all claim to be). Perhaps one of the chains will rise up and be great again, but I can't predict which. All I know is that it will be very exciting to see what happens in August and the next few months. I recommend running one node of Core, one with UASF, one Segwit2x and one Bitcoin ABC, unless you just want to pick the one best suited for your ideology or wait to see which one ends up being considered the real Bitcoin. I am rooting for ABC, or at least Segwit2x (which is admittedly more realistic, and I am afraid the 2x part might well not happen either), being sick and tired of the one-megabyte limit. I am somewhat philosophically opposed to segwit, but anything is better than one megabyte.

40 comments:

Anonymous said...

Eivind, really, nobody is interested in this (beside me but I think the gold age of bitcoin is over, ended before becoming popular; and back to the I didn't have a computer to lend to scientists to dig money).
No wonder there are no comments...

Allah hafiz.

Eivind Berge said...

But the price is going very strong, with 2500 dollars per bitcoin. Now segwit is locked in on the main chain, and the fork coming up on August 1st might breathe more life into it as well if Bitcoin Cash takes off. So I am excited about Bitcoin's future. We are only just getting started!

Anonymous said...

You are amazing, man. :) So optimist and don't let the system to get you down anyway.
Mashallah you and Emma have a long and happy life. Allah bless.

Anonymous said...

Eivind, hvor stor verdi har du selv i Bitcoin omsatt til kroner? Er det enkelt å veksle inn bitcoin og få "ekte" penger? Vurderer du å selge deg ut nå snart?

Eivind Berge said...

Jeg har ikke mye bitcoin nå siden jeg måtte leve av dem, men jeg miner, så jeg får litt mer hele tiden (som jeg da igjen må selge for å leve av dem). Ja, det er superenkelt: Hvis du vil veksle inn bitcoin til kroner så fort som mulig, så går du bare på localbitcoins.com og selger til en kjøper som tilbyr straksoverføring (noe som er mulig gjennom samme bank og enkelte andre). Da har du kroner på konto så raskt kjøperen rekker å reagere, som kan være helt nede i noen sekunder. I verste fall går det noen timer, eller hvis du setter en høyere pris enn markedsprisen for øyeblikket må du selvfølgelig vente til noen vil kjøpe til den prisen. Jeg pleier å selge med en margin på ca. 2-3%, men jeg får som oftest solgt alt jeg har samme dag som jeg legger det ut uansett. Her er min tradingprofil:

https://localbitcoins.com/accounts/profile/EivindB/

Men jeg handler ikke nå før 1. august under påvente av forken. Da blir det lille jeg har duplisert til både BTC og Bitcoin Cash (BCC). Det kan være en god investeringsmulighet her hvis BCC starter lavt og går høyt, men det er jo høyst usikkert.

Anonymous said...

Bitcoin is ponzi scheme

Eivind Berge said...

No, not a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin only superficially resembles a Ponzi because early adopters make so much money. But everything must start somehow, so in order for a new currency or store of value to come into being, it needs to somehow come to be valued. Bitcoin is not predicated on the assumption that new investors will make old investors richer ad infinitum like a Ponzi would be. "Investing" in bitcoin simply means having the good fortune to be among the early adopters who buy in when the value is lower than it will be. But there is no promise about how high it will go. Perhaps it has already reached its potential, perhaps it will go much further, but if bitcoin is here to stay and play a useful role as a currency/commodity then it isn't a Ponzi either way.

I think Bitcoin is so powerful that the world won't let go of at least some incarnation of it as long as we have a technological civilization. If you don't want to own a stake in this wonderful financial technology because you think it is a "Ponzi," then suit yourself.

Anonymous said...

Those who made the money when it was enough to rent your CPU and RAM, they made the deal; but that time flat rate internet connections were not common. Those who could dispose of such connections, are those believed to be the Ponzis, but they were just luck guys with good instinct.
Imo, it's not useful to convert other currencies in bitcoin, now.

Now there are more new encripted currencies, what do you think about them???

Allah Hafiz

Eivind Berge said...

I agree that home mining is useless unless you either have very cheap electricity and the latest ASICs, or mine bitcoin indirectly on GPUs via altcoins (which is what I am doing). Whether it is a good idea to convert other currencies to bitcoin now depends on whether the price of bitcoin will still go up. Considering that the market cap of Bitcoin is still only 44 billion dollars, which is comparable to the stock value of just one of the worlds greatest corporations and not even close to the top ten (who all have market caps of over 300 billion and Apple at number one has 750 billion, almost 20 times the size of Bitcoin) and to say nothing of gold, bonds, cash etc., I think we can expect more money to flow into Bitcoin. Yes, some of that will go to other cryptocurrencies, but Bitcoin still has 45% market dominance and I think nothing is seriously threatening that at the moment. I think fiat currencies and traditional investments are much more vulnerable to financial crises, and they are clearly vulnerable to government intervention, which bitcoin is not, and there will be a major financial crisis sooner or later, so bitcoin has the best outlook.

Eivind Berge said...

New all time high today -- $3200! Up from 2700 a few days ago, so anyone investing at the time I wrote my last comment would already be up 18%. Additionally, anyone getting in before the fork five days ago would have made $228 per bitcoin out of thin air in the form of Bitcoin Cash.

Anonymous said...

Eivind I think bitcoin is a cult to get money like Scientology. Beware!

Eivind Berge said...

LOL, do you have any idea how bitcoin works? Give money to whom exactly? There is no one in control, so who would be doing the begging for money? Bitcoin is a decentralized community of volunteers where no one takes orders from anyone and I am not even paying for my coins, but mining them.

Anonymous said...

My particoular POV?

Bitcoin could a nice way to bypass the unfair, toxic and hypocrital TOS of biased services like Patreon, Paypal and so on.
They keep closing unconfortable people's account by the use of specious reasons and excuses.

Allah Hafiz

Eivind Berge said...

Yes, bitcoin has no TOS whatsoever and no one can close your wallet as long as you control your own private keys. It is all just pure mathematics and energy (mining). Bitcoin is completely permissionless, and once you go permissionless, you never want to go back to being at the mercy of someone else.

Anonymous said...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4176712/men-tax-pay-more-melbourne-cafe/

Eivind Berge said...

That's funny. Being a vegan restaurant their customers are already self-selected as the type that believes in and would put up with this, so I am not surprised the reaction is positive. It won't work in most businesses though.

Anonymous said...

I just received an inheritance of 17,000 euros, should I invest in bitcoin? Can you give me a summary of what you think?

Eivind Berge said...

I would put 50% in Bitcoin and 50% in Bitcoin Cash. There are probably more immediate and bigger gains possible with Bitcoin Cash (which is up 36% in the last 24 hours!) since the market cap is relatively low (5 billion dollars vs. 55 for Bitcoin). I personally believe a trillion-dollar market cap is possible within a few years, which would give you 18 times return on investment with the legacy chain and 200 times in the event that Bitcoin Cash should reach this level, so there is definitely room to grow in my opinion.

But be aware that Bitcoin is now at an all-time high and might as well go down some and stay there for a while, as it has done many times before. There is also the impending war between the legacy chain with segwit and the 2x crowd who want to hardfork to 2 MB. This might result in yet another fork and possible disruption. So it might be a good idea to have some money ready to buy a dip.

I am hoping the 2x supporters can start promoting Bitcoin Cash instead so we avoid another fork. Core will not relent on 1 MB, so it would be better if we could just all agree to settle into two camps, because all this forking is getting ridiculous and threatening the credibility of Bitcoin. But if you look at the price, the market obviously doesn't agree with me that this is a problem... I keep getting surprised by rallies that I hadn't anticipated.

Anonymous said...

Kom tilfeldigvis over denne saken fra 2004.

http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/laerer-doemt-for-ekstrem-sex-med-elev-14/a/222341/

Læreren har ikke akkurat handlet særlig smart, men klarte ikke å motstå fristelsen til å takke ja til jentene som la seg etter ham. Han ble kjæreste med flere av tenåringselevene, og en rapport konkluderte med at ingen hadde tatt skade av forholdet til ham.

Det mest interessant med saken er likevel, sistnevnte"...jentene får mindre oppreisning enn det de krevde, blant annet fordi alle opplevde at forholdet til læreren handlet om gjensidig kjærlighet."

Jeg tviler på at retten ville sagt det samme i en lignende sak i dag. Han hadde regelmessig sex (sågar det som betegnes som ekstrem sex) med flere jenter over en periode på åtte år. Men straffen ble "bare" ett år og 9 måneder. I tillegg til nevnte reduksjon av oppreisning.

Holdningene til slik type seksualitet har hardnet utrolig fra midten av 2000 tallet og fremover. Det er jeg overbevist om.

Noen tanker anyone?

Eivind Berge said...

Nettopp. I dag er holdningen, og snart praksisen også, at man skal fengsles for å i det hele tatt innrømme at et forhold til en 14-åring kan være gjensidig, da det er seksualisering av barn. Domstolene selv drev altså med å produsere det som i dag straffes som barneporno for et tiår siden, så radikalt har seksualfiendtligheten hardnet.

I Hate Feminists said...

Taylor Swbitch: Feminist schizophrenia

"Swift is also a feminist.[283] She has spoken out against LGBT discrimination. Following the 2008 murder of Larry King, she recorded a GLSEN PSA to combat hate crimes.[284] On the first anniversary of King's death, Swift told Seventeen that her parents taught her "never to judge others based on whom they love, what color their skin is, or their religion"."


"In 2007, she launched a campaign to protect children from online predators, in partnership with the Tennessee Association of Chiefs of Police."

... Except if they are men looking for minors, there I judge! They do not love are perverts!

Anonymous said...

But Bitcoin is in bubble

Only terrorists, cybercriminals, paedophiles and money lanunders like it

Eivind Berge said...

Let's hope it is in a bubble, because I don't have enough bitcoin to be happy about this price. But right now it looks like we just missed the train.

Anonymous said...

Hvilket parti har du tenkt å stemme på ved stortingsvalget? Hvis du i det hele tatt stemmer...
Har vanskeligheter med å bestemme meg for hvilket av ondene som er det minste, og lurte på om du hadde noen interessante perspektiver.

Eivind Berge said...

Alle partiene er så hatske at jeg vegrer meg for å gi noen av dem en stemme. Men kanskje et av ondene er bittelitt mindre enn de andre, ja, og det må i så fall være Venstre slik jeg ser det, for er ikke de i det minste motstander av å avskaffe juryordningen? Det er ingen forskjell mellom noen av partiene i hvor mye seksualfiendtlighet og mannshat de vil ha, men på metanivå ser jeg litt forskjell, altså i hvilken grad av sikkerhet og rettigheter de vil bevare angående slikt som rettsprosesser og ytringsfrihet. Eller er det bare innbilning også?

Anonymous said...

Virker ikke som hun derre grande er så begeistret for deg i alle fall.
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/norsk-politikk/grande-advarer-mot-aa-tro-at-kvinnekampen-er-vunnet/a/10052203/

Eivind Berge said...

Nei, som sagt, alle partiene er vemmelige. Spørsmålet er bare hvem som er det minste ondet. Frp og Høyre vil ha samme kjønnspolitikk som feministene på venstresiden med enda mer makt til politiet og strengere straffer. KrF er hatefulle feminister med et ekstra innslag av kristenmoralisme. Venstre er de eneste som er bittelitt opptatt av rettssikkerhet, men de står for nøyaktig de samme sedelighetslovene ellers.

Det er også lite som skiller den økonomiske politikken i praksis. Det eneste som betyr noe for meg er at venstresiden kan finne på å gjeninnføre dødsskatten, så det kan være verd å stemme mot dem hvis du har forhåpninger om å arve noe i fremtiden.

Anonymous said...

Hva med liberalistene? Du er jo "libertarian" ?. Personlig stemte jeg på disse i år, ellers stemmer jeg aldri.

Eivind Berge said...

Ok, de har i hvert fall ingen sjanse til å få noen innflytelse i norsk politikk, men jeg ser nå at et parti som kaller seg Liberalistene ble stiftet i 2014. Her er deres program:

https://www.liberalistene.org/politikk/partiprogram/

Det kan være mye jeg er enig i der, men jeg ser at de er opptatt av å bygge flere fengsler, og det forteller meg at de ikke mener liberalismen alvorlig. For hvis de hadde gjort det, så hadde vi jo trengt færre fengsler, da veldig mange som sitter der og i soningskø er der for offerløse forbrytelser. Som de sier de vil avkriminalisere, men det er selvmotsigende å samtidig ville bygge flere fengsler. Det er flott at de vil gjøre slutt på krigen mot narkotika, men den eneste feministiske sedelighetsloven de faktisk sier de er imot, er sexkjøpsloven, så det er bare en høyst marginal forbedring over de andre partiene når det gjelder menns rettigheter og offerløse seksualforbrytelser og ytringsfrihet (barneporno).

Anonymous said...

Enig i betraktningene dine. Jeg har selv kritisert dem for å være så fanatiske tilhengere av strenge straffer og dårligere fengselsvilkår. Men for meg er det viktigere først å ikke kveles økonomisk, og det er ingen partier som ønsker noen i nærheten av den økonomisk frihet som liberalistene gjør.

Økonomisk sensur og også beskatning fører til mindre ytringsfrihet. Det gir færre muligheter til å f.eks støtte organisasjoner som kjemper vår sak. Pengene våre blir i stedet for å bli brukt på fornuftige saker som fremmer det vi ønsker kastet bort i det offentlige på ting som ikke bare er unødvendig, men som går direkte I MOT oss.

Å få noen politisk innflytelse er nok temmelig vanskelig for et så radikalt parti som liberalistene. Skulle de slengt på legalisering av barneporno på programmet og en del andre slike punkter er alt håp ute. De av oss som er liberalister både økonomisk OG seksuelt er det ikke mange av gitt.

Eivind Berge said...

"De av oss som er liberalister både økonomisk OG seksuelt er det ikke mange av gitt."

Det er sant, men jeg synes jammen ikke man trenger å være liberalist for være mot flere av sedelighetslovene som nå gjelder enn bare sexkjøpsloven. Det er ikke mange årene siden vi hadde helt andre lover og da det som nå er altfor ekstremt for alle partiene var mainstream. Jeg husker godt da barnepornoloven ble innført på 90-tallet, og det tok mange år før det ble aktuelt å håndheve den bokstavelig talt på bokstaver. Nå må man være mer ekstrem enn hele det politiske kartet for å i det hele tatt ha noen motforestillinger, og det sier alt om hvor sykt klimaet har hardnet når ikke en gang det mest kontrære partiet har en annen politikk.

Anonymous said...

Nei sant det.

Om man utøver ytringsfrihet på dette området så vil man risikere hele karrieren, familie/venner, full utstøting fra samfunnet, men verst av alt: utøvende makt vil prøve å "ta" deg på noe. Noe du vet alt om. Med så mange subjektive lover å forholde seg til er tilnærmet alle lovbryter i en eller annen forstand. Det er alltid muligheter til å få tatt noen, og om ikke dømt, så vil nok en slik arrestasjon og opphold sette skrekken i de fleste. Det gir en kvelende effekt på ytringsfriheten.

Det er nok flere der ute som er enig, men som tier i frykt. Hvor mange det er spørs vel helt konkret hvilke lover vi snakker om. Jeg er redd for å i det hele tatt besøke eller kommentere på bloggen din og benytter falsk ip.

At tekst er forbudt og at denne loven faktisk håndheves tyder virkelig ikke bra nei.

Men hvem vil være den politikeren eller kjendisen som står frem og sier det må være lov å skrive om barnesex?

Det er ingen som er der for å forsvare rettsvernet. Det er rett og slett blitt alt for mye hysteri rundt sex, og spesielt barn og sex.

Vi kan jo se til USA på hvordan det er mulig for et samfunn å ende opp. I Arizona, USA er minststraffen per bilde som seksualiserer barn 10 år. Er man f.eks i besittelse av 15 seksualiserte bilder blir man altså dømt til 150 år i fengsel. Barn er definert som "under 18", og større straff ved under 15.

Dette på toppen av offentlige registre der dømte henges ut til spot og spe.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pornography-sentence-idUSN3034892420070226

Det kreves at flere snakker ut. De stiltiende som er enig i at dette bærer feil vei kommer ikke ut før de ikke lenger straffes. Enn så lenge er det hit vi er på vei tror jeg. Strengere straffer og mer subjektive lover slik at det er enklere å straffe folk som ikke har gjort noe galt.

Noe man glemmer i alt hysteriet er at man også vil få muligheten til å bli kvitt fiender ved å plante ulovlig porno på deres PC.

Anonymous said...

This is the first thing produced by the pseudo mass media culture, where you can talk about everything and criticize everyone. However, as soon as one stops to read the thousands and thousands of daily comments and judgments that appear published, the criticisms always revolve around the same characters and the same issues.

The commonplace of criticism is broad but it does not go beyond the same themes: Trump, Muslim terrorists, pedophile priests, governments that are against gay and abortion, drug traffickers, imperialism and so on.

But what is it that they do not criticize? Obama, who was a Nobel Peace Prize winner, barely took office and ended his eight-year rule with the record of being the president who bombs the most and left as a gift to the world the creation of the Islamic State, Isis, or better, Daech.

The massive and unrestricted immigration of Islamic terrorists carrying a fallacious European citizenship, when one, is not citizen of a country by the document but because it participates in the national ethos of the same. Immigration did not exist and can not exist without integration.
Much less do they criticize the hundreds of pedophile rabbis who roam the great cities of the West. In New York, just forty-five of them have just been sentenced to life imprisonment.

Governments, especially Europeans, who with the exaltation of the gay world and abortion are producing the most negative birth rate in their history and leaving their countries without an indigenous population. France, Spain and Germany are the most serious examples.
The drug traffickers are criticized but not drug consumption and the imperialism of transnational corporations, but not the international imperialism of money. Well, no one goes to jail for criticizing Coca Cola or Ford, but he can go, if he criticizes the Jewish bankers who handle much of the world at his whim.

Pseudo-media culture has consolidated in the last thirty years a unique thought that was imposed monolithically, where there is no subject that does not already have a recipe or a story that explains and is adopted by all. The classic example is today the defense of democracy and human rights, a subject on which no one can be against the saint to be taken as a totalitarian or "reduce it to Hitler." However, most Western democracies are just formal or procedural democracies. Maduro is not criticized for the 150 young people he killed in two months of demonstrations, but because he annulled Congress.

As for human rights, this pseudo-media culture is not so interested in highlighting the lack of social rights to which many peoples are subjected, such as the right to work, education, justice, holidays, health, but rather the subjective rights Of minorities: gay marriage, children under commission, the communion of the divorced and the thousand demands of the bourgeois world.

Two Muslim jihadists have just blown up Rambla de Barcelona and President Rajoy spoke of defending democracy and human rights. And who the fuck cares about that, now? What the victims who were left with life, their relatives and the Spaniards want, is that they find the culprits punish them and foresee another attack. And that is only done if the Spanish government takes the bull by the horns and expels the two thousand terrorists and their relatives who already know and have syndicates. Of course, this is politically incorrect and will not do it. And if he tried to do El Pais, El Mundo, ABC, La Razon and Spanish television would be against. If even Pope Francis himself bought the mass media message on Monday 21/8 that "the personal security of Muslim immigrants, who are invading Europe, is ahead of the national security of the States that receive them. They just have to end up blaming the Christians for the attacks.

Anonymous said...

Apparently, they’re rescuing women and children before men from the hurricane – deliberately. Needless to say, the rescue teams are all male. Female preferential treatment is all-encompassing in the gynocentric society.

Anonymous said...

We live in a century of great social changes, and these changes have modified the logical and scientific vision of the world by an altered vision, forced and directed towards a fantasy. This fantasy is the reality of progress, which has contaminated universities and media, to such a degree that modern society has succumbed to the imposition of a parallel reality where fantasy is now an official "reality."

This new "reality" of fantasy that denies the objective and scientific reality consists in the following:

There is only one human race.
There are 150 genders in the human species.
Sex is defined by the mind, not biology.
All human beings are the same, all have the same capabilities and potential.
Borders should not exist, I shuns private property either, I suport refuguees except if it is my house.
Humanity is a superior entity to animals.
The white man is need to blame for all evils.
Europeans are Africans who adapted to the Neolithic European climate 8,000 years ago.
Islam is a religion of peace.
Multiculturalism is good: it brings progress and happiness.
Nationality is determined by a paper, not by your ethnic background.
In the second world war the bad guys were the axis, the good were the allies (historiographic maniqueism).
Feminists occupy strategic positions of power because they are clever, not because there is a Feminist conspiracy.
The traditional woman is a sexist product.
Germany has been a free and sovereign country since 1945.
India is a mystical, fascinating and rich cultural country worth visiting.
Gypsies are an ethnic group of noble and hardworking people who bring social wealth.
Communism is possible.
Western civilization does not exist.
Swedish culture does not exist.
German culture does not exist.
French culture does not exist.
Europe does not belong to Europeans.
The Amerindians are historical victims of the Spaniards.
Only Europeans enslaved blacks.
Egypt was a black civilization.
There were sub-Saharans in ancient peoples such as the Celts, Germans, Romans and Greeks.
Europe must multiculturalize itself to be redeemed by its imperial past.
All antiglobalists are Nazis.
Muslim terrorists are victims of the Western society that discriminates against them.
All persons under 18 are children.
If you're 25 you're still a kid.
40-year-old women are still young and can be mothers without problems.
If a man feels attracted to girls aged 13-17 he is a pedophile.

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caamib said...

Eivind, how much do you believe BitCoin will grow this year and will there be a huge crash? What are your predictions on this? I'm talking about just BTC now, not other cryptocurrencies.

Eivind Berge said...

I have no idea. These prices are crazy, so a big crash wouldn't surprise me. I am actually hoping for a crash because I have so little bitcoin that the price going up only feels depressing. I was super enthusiastic about Bitcoin for four years, and still am, but sadly missed out when it finally took off because of poverty. So another crash and rise would be great. Or at least some donations. Don't MRAs have any bitcoin wealth to share?

caamib said...

Ok, I'm also interested in

-when you started acquiring Bitcoins and how? Did you buy them, mine them or both? Obviously you weren't on it right away in 2010-2011 or didn't realize the potential if you were because then you'd buy a shitton at the time?

- if it's not a private matter, how much do you have and when would you consider selling some for fiat money? Have you exchanged any for fiat before?

- has BTC improved your financial situation to any significant degree? I suppose not, since you mention poverty but maybe you aren't that poor now.

Eivind Berge said...

I started buying bitcoin in 2013 for 100 dollars apiece. I kept holding and trading and eventually got into mining as well (via altcoins, since I don't have ASICs for Bitcoin) and had over a dozen bitcoins less than a year ago, but then lost most other work so I had to live off of my bitcoin and spent all of it before the recent rise. So yeah, it improved my financial situation, but I narrowly missed out on true financial independence. I also invested in miners, but that turned out to be a mistake because I would have made tons more money just holding bitcoin. So now I live from miners to mouth and don't have more than a few days of mining income in bitcoin at any time because I am so poor.

The plan was always to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible and retire, and I almost made it.